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Win Probability 
Recent Stories 8/19 - Effective W-L Records by Eric Seidman  38/19 - Best Pitching Acquisition by Dave Cameron 48/19 - A New York State of Mind by Marc Hulet 08/19 - Checking In With Cain by Eric Seidman 38/19 - B.J. Being B.J. by Dave Cameron 138/18 - Webb or Haren? by Eric Seidman 68/17 - It's Back by Dave Cameron 08/15 - Hi, I'm Average by Dave Cameron 8
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Effective W-L Recordsby Eric Seidman - 8/19/2008 - Comments (3)Over at the Inside the Book: Blog a week or two ago, TangoTiger discussed a method in which a pitcher's "effective win-loss record" could be calculated using primarily the +WPA and -WPA components found here at Fangraphs. For all of the gory details, click here. For more of a calculation summation, this modified record can be produced by doing the following:1) Double the +WPA and -WPA, otherwise known as Win Advancement and Loss Advancement2) Regardless of the + or -, add the WA and LA (if a pitcher has a +8.50 +WPA and -6.50 -WPA, he would have 17 WA and 13 LA)3) This new number gives us the GA, Game Advancements4) Multiply the GA by .3085) Subtract the product from #4 from the WA and LA to get the 'Effective W-L'With the exporting feature on the leaderboards I was able to enter this into a spreadsheet to calculate the effective w-l record of all those who qualify. Via winning percentage, the top five pitchers in this category are:1) Ryan Dempster, .823 (12.3-2.6)2) Cliff Lee, .813 (14.1-3.2)3) Tim Lincecum, .724 (13.2-5.0)4) Justin Duchsherer, .705 (9.6-4.0)5) CC Sabathia, .691 (14.0-6.3)Ian Snell clocked in with the lowest winning percentage, a .328 spawned from his 5.8-12.0 effective record. To view the spreadsheet I used and see everyone's winning percentage, click here.Whether or not this metric will find itself ingrained in the general saberstream or not is yet to be determined but it definitely serves the purpose of leveling out a pitcher's record. By adjusting it to be indicative of the positive and negative shifts in win expectancy we are really looking at how much a pitcher helped his team win or lose.Best Pitching Acquisitionby Dave Cameron - 8/19/2008 - Comments (4)24 years ago, the Chicago Cubs acquired Rick Sutcliffe from the Indians during the summer to bolster their rotation - he made 20 starts, went 16-1, and won the N.L. Cy Young award. It's generally considered the best midseason pitching acquisition in baseball history, but with CC Sabathia throwing another complete game last night for Milwaukee, it's an issue worth revisiting. Let's take a look a deeper look at the three contenders for the crown: 1984 Sutcliffe: 150 1/3 IP, 3.97 K/BB, 0.54 HR/9, 2.28 FIP, 1.52 WPA/LI1988 Randy Johnson: 84 1/3 IP, 4.46 K/BB, 0.43 HR/9, 2.04 FIP, 2.62 WPA/LI2008 Sabathia: 73 IP, 4.60 K/9, 0.49 HR/9, 2.59 FIP, 2.06 WPA/LISutcliffe gets the award for quantity, piling up the innings in his 20 starts as a Cub, but he can't touch Randy Johnson's remarkable dominance on a pitch-by-pitch basis. After the Astros picked him up, The Big Unit was absolutely unhittable, throwing four complete game shutouts in his eleven starts. His WPA/LI mark is absurd considering that it covers just 11 starts - Tim Lincecum has piled up a 2.62 WPA/LI in his 25 starts this season, and he's one of the top contenders for the Cy Young award. Based on the linear weights method that WPA/LI represents, it appears clear that Johnson outpitched Sutcliffe even with the innings discrepancy. Sabathia probably won't equal Johnson's brilliance, but if he continues to pitch at the level he has since arriving in Milwaukee, he'll get close, and he's certainly put himself in the discussion. This trade couldn't have gone any better for the Brewers. A New York State of Mindby Marc Hulet - 8/19/2008 - Comments (0)It is hard to believe but the minor league season is nearing an end. With its season more than half over, the short season New York-Penn League has announced its All-Star teams. Made up of a collection of Latin players, 2008 college draft picks and 2006 or 2007 high school players, the teams are loaded with talent and intriguing stories. Let's take a quick look at a few of the more interesting players: Bradley Holt (New York NL), 21, was nabbed in the 2008 supplemental first round and has not skipped a beat after a solid college season. He has allowed just 34 hits in 54.2 innings and has a 1.98 ERA with 27 walks allowed and 69 strikeouts. Robert Bell (Toronto), soon to be 23, was selected all the way down in the 18th round, possibly because so many teams are worried about health issues with Rice University graduates. Working out of the bullpen, Bell has allowed just 13 hits in 25.1 innings and he has yet to allow a walk. He has also struck out 35 batters and has racked up 10 saves. Miguel Fermin (Florida), 23, is a little old for the league but the catcher can hit. Last season in the Dominican Summer League, Fermin hit .336/.386/.474 in 116 at-bats. In 2008, the right-handed batter is dominating the league with a line of .370/.393/.676 in 173 at-bats. The 165-pound backstop has increased his power output with 13 homers but has just eight walks. Shortstop Chase D'Arnaud (Pittsburgh) is best known at this point for being 2007 first round pick Travis D'Arnaud's older brother. The 21-year-old is now making a name for himself with a line of .339/.371/.505 in 109 at-bats. He has also stolen 10 bases in 11 attempts.Pat Venditte (New York AL) is well known now as being a true ambidextrous hurler (he throws with both right and left hands). Hardly a sideshow, Venditte has saved 16 games and has allowed just 10 hits in 25.2 innings. Left-handed batters have hit just .088 against Venditte.Backstop Robert Alcombrack (Cleveland), 20, has lots of raw power but he is beginning to learn how to be a better all-around hitter. After slugging seven homers in 127 Gulf Coast League at-bats in 2007, Alcombrack has managed just one this season but his average has improved more than 30 points to .274. He was originally selected out of high school in the seventh round of the 2006 draft. At 5'7'', Mike Gosse (Detroit) will always have detractors, but the second baseman is doing his best David Eckstein impression. He currently has a line of .292/.333/.375 in 168 at-bats. His average has improved each of the last three months. Gosse has also struck out just nine times to go along with 12 walks. Checking In With Cainby Eric Seidman - 8/19/2008 - Comments (3)Last year, Matt Cain posted one of the best 7-16 seasons of all time, clearly producing numbers above the level expected from a record like that. He would give up two or less runs and and lose or fail to record a decision more often than win, which speaks volumes to the offense "supporting" him. This year, he got off to a similar start, losing games in which he pitched poorly, but not winning the games he deserved to win. With a month and a half left he has already surpassed last year's total with eight wins, but his record still is not indicative of what the rest of his numbers suggest.He has a 3.57 ERA supported by a 3.48 FIP. Though he walks hitters to the tune of 3.62 per nine innings, he is pretty hard to hit, which is currently resulting in a 1.28 WHIP. On top of that, he rarely gives up home runs, as evidenced by his 5.7% HR/FB that is very similar to his numbers in this metric over his entire career. For the record, league average is around eleven percent.This year, he has given up two earned runs or less in 13 starts, and gone just 6-1 in that span. Though better than his results in 2007, that means there are six no-decisions that could have or should have been wins. Though I ultimately don't care about the W-L record, most of the country does, and Cain's reputation is likely hurt outside of San Francisco or NL West teams because of this. He has seemingly perfected the art form of pitching well enough to win while losing or not getting any decision.His 1.62 WPA/LI and 1.54 REW are solid for this year, but nowhere near the top of the leaderboards. He has been the perfect compliment to Tim Lincecum and a great number two pitcher. For those curious, his WPA/LI is one win lower than Lincecum and his REW is about two wins lower. Still, the tag team nicknamed "LinceCain" is one reason Giants fans should feel happy about something from this season.Cain is a very good pitcher... not a league best righty by any means, but with some better run support, his reputation would be much stronger amongst baseball fans. He could conceivably receive, and deservedly so, a huge contract when it is free agency time despite a potential W-L record 20 games below .500.B.J. Being B.J. by Dave Cameron - 8/19/2008 - Comments (13)What a strange, strange season B.J. Upton is having. If you didn't see the play from last night, well, just imagine the laziest baserunning play possible, then carry that to an exponent of ten, and that's how bad Upton looked getting tagged from behind by Mark Teixeira while not running out a double. He wasn't running hard because he thought it was a home run, though it's anyone's guess why he kept jogging after the ball hit the wall . Given that he was just benched by manager Joe Maddon for a lack of hustle, doing his best Manny impersonation probably wasn't a good idea. However, that's not the only reason why Upton's having a strange year. Look at his line for the season, and then try to think of a similar performance:.269/.380/.398, 435 AB, 8 HR, 82 BB, 107 KThe OBP/SLG line aren't that strange, as there are always guys floating around that specialize in getting on base even though they aren't much in the way of power threats. Often, these guys are middle infielders with great bat control (think Willie Randolph or Luis Castillo) who hit for a nice average and draw walks due to their control of the strike zone. That doesn't describe B.J. Upton at all. Instead, Upton has walk and strikeout rates that would be normal for a power hitting slugger, but he just has eight home runs. He's not getting the fear walks that guys like Pujols and Berkman do, but instead, he's drawing ball four by being willing to work the count - he has just a 40% swing rate and a 14% O-Swing%, showing that he's just not willing to chase pitches out of the zone. Generally, however, pitchers will challenge hitters who work the count but aren't long ball threats, which is why Marco Scutaro isn't drawing 80 walks a year. The only guy who has found success with a similar skillset in MLB history is Tony Phillips, who was the king of working the count without having a lot of power. For all of Upton's physical abilities, though, he'll have to be disappointed if his career ends up as a Tony Phillips type player - he really should be a star, but as last night made obvious, the work ethic still isn't there. Hopefully he learns.Webb or Haren?by Eric Seidman - 8/18/2008 - Comments (6)The Diamondbacks have been a disappointment so far this season, failing to distance themselves from their NL West rivals on several occasions. Now, with a month and a half remaining, they face the serious possibility of losing the division and missing the post-season. None of these woes can really be attributed to Brandon Webb or Dan Haren, however, as both pitchers have been fantastic this year.A couple months ago that I would take Webb over Haren in a crucial situation but that there weren't any other twosomes I would want to headline my rotation. Granted, a CC Sabathia/Ben Sheets twosome may give them a run for their money now that Sabathia is in the senior circuit, but Webb/Haren have both put together great seasons. Which one is having the better year right now, though? Even though we know and understand that W-L records are terrible evaluative barometers, it's pretty hard to look at Webb's 18-4 mark and completely disregard it. That's what we need to do, however, to get a clear picture of everything. Here are some comparisons:Webb: 2.85 ERA, 1.11 WHIPHaren: 2.96 ERA, 1.03 WHIPWebb: 177 IP, 154 H, 9 HRHaren: 167 IP, 143 H, 14 HRWebb: 7.37 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, 3.45 K/BBHaren: 8.41 K/9, 1.56 BB/9, 5.38 K/BBWebb: 2.96 FIP, .291 BABIP, 72.8% LOBHaren: 2.91 FIP, .291 BABIP, 74.3% LOBWebb: 2.12 WPA/LI, 2.66 REW, 26.73 BRAAHaren: 3.23 WPA/LI, 3.14 REW, 31.68 BRAAThe first two comparisons may lean towards Webb, but after that it is pretty tough to argue that Haren has not been the better pitcher to date. He doesn't walk anyone, has a great strikeout rate, isn't posting an unsustainably high strand rate, and his BABIP isn't abnormally low either. On top of that, his context-neutral contributions are over one full win better than Webb, while his wins based on shifts in run expectancy are almost a half-win better.One of the aspects I touched on last time dealt with Webb having better numbers in high leverage situations. That has not changed:Webb: .200/.260/.264, .524 OPSHaren: .289/.317/.447, .764 OPSThe caveat to this, however, is that Webb has 126 PA in these situations and Haren only has 84. Haren doesn't seem to be as good under the pressure but he has been good enough this season to avoid these pressure situations. Granted, some of this is also contingent upon the defense and game state but you may be inclined to think that the better a pitcher is, the less high leverage situations he would find himself in. It won't be true in all cases, but if a pitcher is constantly in the midst of high leverage situations---and he isn't a late inning reliever---that means runners are constantly reaching base and posing legitimate run-scoring threats.Just 12.6% of Haren's PAs this year have been of this nature whereas Webb is under pressure 17.4% of the time. Take from that what you will, or take away nothing from it. If nothing else, it is interesting to note. It looks like Haren has performed better than his sinker-balling teammate this year even though most people are going to be swayed by Webb's impressive W-L record and slightly lower ERA. Don't be fooled, though... Haren has been just as effective, if not better. If they do manage to make the playoffs this twosome could prove huge in their World Series chances.It's Backby Dave Cameron - 8/17/2008 - Comments (0)Attention everyone looking for the missing offense in the AL in 2008 - I found it today. Baltimore beat Detroit 16-8 behind five home runs from the group of Melvin Mora, Luke Scott, and Aubrey Huff. The losing Tigers racked up 15 hits and chased the Orioles starting pitcher from the game in the second inning. Toronto beat Boston 15-4 thanks to 10 doubles, including four from Alex Rios. They had 12 extra base hits, but only one home run (by Adam Lind), and hammered Josh Beckett for 8 runs in 2 1/3 innings pitched. New York beat Kansas City 15-6 as Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez combined to go a perfect 7 for 7 with a couple of walks, reaching base all nine times they came to the plate. It's a good thing Brian Bannister understands FIP, because his ERA took a beating, giving up 10 runs in just an inning of work. Chicago beat Oakland 13-1 thanks to Carlos Quentin's continued success (2 for 3, home run, two walks, four RBI). They also got a grand slam from Alexei Ramirez. Not rejuvenated Ken Griffey Jr went 0 for 3, however. Minnesota beat Seattle 11-8 as the two teams combined for 33 hits. Raul Ibanez carried the day, going 5 for 5 in a losing effort, while Jason Kubel was the hitting star for Minnesota (4 for 5, a couple of doubles) as he continued to kill the Mariners this year. And, finally, as I write this, Carlos Pena just launched a three run homer to give the Rays a 4-0 lead over Texas in the 3rd inning. Odds are pretty good that there will be a few more runs scored in that one too, adding a potential sixth high scoring game to the AL ledger. Hi, I'm Averageby Dave Cameron - 8/15/2008 - Comments (8)In the statistical community, you'll generally see two baselines for metrics that compare players one to another - average and replacement level. There have been a lot of arguments about what replacement level is, whether it's the same for each position, and whether or not it works for every team. However, most people generally don't quibble with above average metrics, because the concept of average is taught in third grade math. Everyone knows what average is. But what does average look like? When we talk about contribution over an average player, who are we talking about? Who is the personification of average production in MLB? For 2008, one man stands above the rest - the most consistently average player in baseball. That man is Kelly Johnson. His batting average is .266, compared to a league average of .259. His on base percentage is .335, compared to a league average of .330.His slugging percentage is .416, compared to a league average of .413. He's posting an average BB/K rate, an average ISO, and an average BABIP. His WPA/LI (which is measured as above average) is -0.01. He's even average defensively, as the Fielding Bible +/- system ranks him as just +3 plays as a second baseman, which is not quite a premium position but not a spot for oafs either. You name the skill, Johnson is probably about league average at it. So, the next time you hear someone refer to runs or wins above average, feel free to reinterpret it as runs or wins above Kelly Johnson. High on Lifeby Marc Hulet - 8/15/2008 - Comments (3)Pitchers Jeremy Jeffress and Jeff Allison have both had battles with drugs. Thankfully, they are both finally back on the mound and trying to resurrect their formerly-promising professional careers. Thanks to Texas Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton's well-publicized battle with narcotics as a minor leaguer, there is renewed hope that players dealing with personal demons can have productive Major League careers.Jeffress, whom I touched on earlier this season, was signed out of a Virginia high school with the 16th overall pick of the 2006 draft. He struggled a bit in his short-season debut after the draft and then made just 18 appearances in 2007 due to suspensions related to drug use. Now reportedly clean, and with a new focus, Jeffress has improved his control significantly (down two runs per nine innings) over his debut season and is striking out more than 12 batters per nine innings. In High-A ball, the 20 year old allowed 65 hits in 79.1 innings with 102 strikeouts. He was recently promoted to Double-A where he allowed two runs and three walks in 2.1 innings in one start.Allison has a steeper hill to climb in his return to professional baseball because he has missed far more baseball than Jeffress and also had a much more dangerous addiction. The 23-year-old pitcher was originally drafted 16th overall out of a Massachusetts high school in the 2003 draft. He appeared in three games that season and then missed the next year entirely. Allison returned for part of 2005 and made 17 starts with OK results, especially considering what he was going through off the field. Things fell apart for him again, though, and he missed all of 2006 and 2007. Allowed to return to professional baseball in 2008, Allison has expectedly had an inconsistent season in High-A ball. He has allowed 101 hits in 104.2 innings, along with 46 walks and 61 strikeouts. Left-handed batters are hitting .305 against him, while right-handed batters are managing just .221. With runners in scoring position, batters are scorching Allison for a .316 average, compared to .213 with the bases empty, so he may be trying to do too much.Both players have taken encouraging first steps in their returns from drug abuse, but it still a long road ahead. I, for one, am rooting for both of them.Singleton Said What?by Eric Seidman - 8/15/2008 - Comments (14)Between a few errands yesterday, I happened to catch one of those ESPN baseball analysis segments in which a series of supposedly interesting questions are analyzed from all angles until the viewer walks away with an extreme understanding of the subject. Or maybe the opposite. I can't remember. Anyways, the analyst was Chris Singleton, whom I actually feel has the best presence on-screen and is the smoothest of the bunch, generally offering good insights. Something he mentioned on this particular segment, however, made me cringe.They were showing a highlight of the DBacks-Rockies game in which Adam Dunn grounded out to end the game in a clutch spot. Singleton started by mentioning how tough of a plate appearance it was with so much at stake and Brian Fuentes---who hides the ball very well---on the mound. So far so good. But when Chris got into his overall evaluation of Dunn, despite presenting the information in a smooth manner, it came off as nothing more than generic announcer-talk that exhibited next to no knowledge of what he was discussing.To paraphrase, he essentially said that while Dunn will hit homers he will also strike out quite a bit... and because of the strikeouts he'll post low on base and slugging percentages.What!? Seriously?So, does that mean that Hanley Ramirez is posting low on base and slugging percentages? As Dave showed a couple of days ago, these players have virtually identical OBP and SLG numbers over the last two years. Why would Singleton say this? If he meant to say that, because Dunn strikes out so much it prevents him from getting more extra base hits and more opportunities at reaching base, then it would make at least some sense... except that would mean Dunn would be a completely different player. Basically, there really is no justifiable reason to make this comment other than having no idea what you are talking about.His OBP is virtually the same as Chase Utley, who by all accounts gets on base at a very decent clip. His SLG is higher than David Wright's and virtually the same as the aforementioned Ramirez as well as Prince Fielder. In fact, Dunn and Fielder have very similar OBP and SLG numbers despite Prince's forty point advantage in batting average. If Dunn was striking out a ton and producing a .230/.320/.430 slash line I might be able to understand Singleton's point of view, but his actual line is .234/.373/.525. His OBP and SLG may be lower than his counts last year or a few years ago, but they are not low.Kotsay's Komebackby Dave Cameron - 8/15/2008 - Comments (0)It's been a disappointing season in Atlanta with more downs than ups and, for the first time since the days of Columbus, that the Braves weren't contenders down the stretch. However, there's been a bright spot down south, and that bright spot hit for the cycle last night. We are, of course, talking about the resurgence of Mark Kotsay. Over the winter, the A's traded Kotsay to the Braves for Joey Devine, while also agreeing to pick up all but $2 million of the salary owed to Kotsay this year. While Devine has blossomed in Oakland and the Braves would certainly like to have him back, they have to be happy with what they've gotten from Kotsay, even with injury issues that kept him out for the month of June. His 5 for 5 night last night brought his season line to .300/.346/.443. His gap power is back and his contact rate is still strong, and with better health has come more hard hit balls - his line drive rate is up to 21.9% from the 14.5% of last year. More line drives mean more hits, and that difference is the reason that his batting average has climbed back from his .214 mark last year. As we can see from his WPA/LI (0.04), as well as the great new RV/PA (0.01) from the guys at Stat Corner, Kotsay's been a dead on league average hitter this year. The injuries have taken a toll on his defensive abilities, and he's probably more of a corner outfielder than a CF at this point in his career, but that just brings him down to an average player overall. It isn't every day when you can pick up an average player for who you owe just $2 million for the season. The loss of Devine hurts, but Kotsay has been a success for the Braves in a season where they haven't had as many of those as they needed. <-- Previous entries
Fastball (mph): Starters
Felix Hernandez94.9Ubaldo Jimenez94.8Josh Beckett94.5Ervin Santana94.3Tim Lincecum94.3
WPA: Batters
Lance Berkman5.78Manny Ramirez5.11Carlos Lee4.84Pat Burrell4.71Jason Bay4.66
WPA: Starters
Cliff Lee5.45Tim Lincecum4.09CC Sabathia3.86Roy Halladay3.65Brandon Webb3.26
WPA: Relievers
Brad Lidge4.70Joakim Soria4.08Joe Nathan4.05Brian Wilson3.42Brad Ziegler3.00
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